🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Made $436,000 from Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the period preceding former President Trump announced on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended. One account, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on Venezuela, made more than $436K from a modest bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Market statistics shows that users assessed the probability of a political change at just 6.5% in the midday period of the prior Friday. But the odds had climbed to eleven percent by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment just before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," said Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other individuals also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Elected officials are starting to take note. A bill presented on the start of the week would prevent public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry. An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."