Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
