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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet the current competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still